Independent School Admissions Decline: ISC Census 2025 Signals Sector Shake-Up
May 2025 | By Cognitive Tasking
The Independent Schools Council (ISC) has released its 2025 Census—and the findings are stark. Admissions across the sector are falling fast, with early warning signs pointing to a long-term shift that may reshape the independent education landscape for years to come.
Admissions Down—And This Is Only the Beginning
- 2.0% fall in overall pupil numbers across ISC schools (≈11,000 pupils)
- 2.4% drop in like-for-like schools (≈13,363 pupils)
- Reception, Year 3, and Year 7 intake down by over 5%
- New pupil admissions down 5.3% year-on-year
The Key Context: Timing
This data was collected in January 2025—just weeks after the introduction of 20% VAT on school fees. Most families had not even paid a full VAT-inclusive term. The full financial impact is still to come.
Regional and Structural Risk
- Worst-hit areas: Wales (-5.1%), East Midlands (-3.2%), North West (-3.1%)
- London (-1.5%) and South East (-2.3%) more resilient
- Over 25% of ISC schools have fewer than 142 pupils—financially vulnerable
Forecast: What Happens Next
- Further Enrolment Decline: 4–6% expected by May 2026
- Entry Year Pressure: Double-digit drops possible
- Marketing Shift: From awareness to performance-focused tools
- Structural Closures: Mergers/closures of small schools expected
- Rising Expectations: Faster, personalised digital admissions journeys expected by parents
Rationale
- Economic Pressure: VAT, rising NI, and loss of reliefs make fees harder to justify
- Demographic Change: Fewer children overall entering the system
- Behavioural Lag: Families tend to exit at natural stages—so more departures still to come
What This Means for Schools
In an environment where the pond is shrinking, the schools that thrive will be those that treat every website visitor, every enquiry, and every prospective parent as critical. Personalisation and conversion optimisation are no longer “nice-to-haves”—they are survival strategies.
Independent Schools Facing Closure in 2025: A Sector Under Strain
April 2025 | By Cognitive Tasking
This year, at least eight long-standing independent schools across England and Wales have announced they will close their doors—citing sliding pupil numbers, soaring operational costs and, in many cases, the new 20% VAT on school fees—as the final straw in an already challenging landscape. From Surrey to Lincolnshire, each closure tells its own local story, yet together they paint a picture of a sector under unprecedented financial pressure, where even historic institutions struggle to balance the books.
South East England
Woodcote House School (Windlesham, Surrey) will close at the end of the summer term 2025 after 94 years of operation. Directors blame “unsustainable finances” and note that the new VAT rise alarmed families, contributing to a sharp fall in enquiries.
Highfield Prep School (Maidenhead, Berkshire) plans to shut in July 2025. Governors cite financial burdens from VAT, rising National Insurance and business-rates changes as key factors.
St Hilda’s Prep School (Bushey, Hertfordshire) is consulting on a possible summer 2025 closure after trustees revealed that VAT, staffing costs and demographic shifts have made continued operation “unsustainable.”
East of England
St George’s Preparatory School (Boston, Lincolnshire)—rated “outstanding” by Ofsted—announced it will close at the end of the academic year 2025, citing “unsustainable losses” driven by VAT, increased National Insurance and falling enrolment.
South West England
Fairfield PNEU School (Backwell, Bristol), a 90-year-old preparatory school, will shut in August 2025. Leadership attributes the closure to “the prevailing economic environment,” with VAT cited as a key driver.
West Midlands
Bedstone College (Bucknell, Shropshire) will close at the end of the summer term 2025 after 70 years. Governors state falling rolls and escalating costs—including VAT— have rendered the school financially unviable.
North West England
Moorland Senior School (Clitheroe, Lancashire) closed with two days’ notice in March 2025 after its proprietor confirmed the senior section was “no longer financially viable” due to falling enrolment, uncollected fees, rising costs and the new VAT.
East Midlands
Loughborough Amherst School (Leicestershire) has announced plans to close in 2025, citing “financial challenges” including the introduction of VAT on school fees among the primary factors.